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Coronavirus growth rate in Karnataka on downward spiral.

 Coronavirus growth rate in Karnataka on downward spiral.

BENGALURU: Though there has been a rise in Covid cases in the state, there is a ‘downward trend’ of the disease, and an increase in the doubling period, if one were to go by the moving growth rate (MGR), revealed a report by Dr Giridhara R Babu, member, state Covid-19 Technical Advisory Committee.

Titled ‘Covid Management: Karnataka is bouncing back’, the report refers to a 30-day MGR. “The MGR is commonly used to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight long-term trends. This is generally used in conjunction with time. In a pandemic, a decrease in MGR indicates a downtrend in the disease,” the report reads.

The report uses data between July 4 and August 8. The 30-day moving positivity growth rate for Karnataka starts at 216%, increases to 400% and declines to 189%. The 30-day moving active cases growth rate for Karnataka starts at 287%, moves to 725% and declines to 118%.  The 30-day moving fatality growth rate for the state starts at 309%, hikes to 552%, and declines to 148%.

The MGR figures for positivity, active cases and fatalities show a similar declining trend for Bengaluru, Mysuru and Bidar. Dr Babu, Head of Lifecourse Epidemiology at Public Health Foundation of India, said, “Karnataka’s 30-day moving positivity growth rate has come down from 400 to 189, which is a positive sign. This indicates that testing has been increasing, isolation of patients is quick, and contact tracing is happening too.

As compared to the rest of India, Karnataka is doing well.” For example, for 30-day moving positivity growth rate, Bengaluru starts at 1,188%, jumps to 1,467%, and declines to 144%. The same figures for Mysuru starts at 91%, rises to 1,110% and reduces to 353%. For Bidar, it starts at 107%, increases to 146% and comes down to 113%.MGR for active cases in the city starts at 2,172%, reduces to 1,960% and then drops to 50%. In Mysuru, it begins with 730%, grows to 937% and comes down to 342%. For Bidar, the figures are 32%, hike to 601% and drop to 60%.

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